The Toronto Raptors have generally been overachievers in recent history, a trend that their fans and bettors at Ontario sportsbooks can only hope continues in 2023-24 as the new season approaches.
The NBA regular season starts Oct. 24, and the Raptors open their season Oct. 25 at home against Minnesota. To gauge the Raptors’ prospects as the season nears, OntarioBets.com gathered historical data from SportsOddsHistory.com to see how Toronto has done against forecasted preseason win totals dating to 2010-11. Win totals for the 2019-20 season, which were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, were not included due to the shortened season. Here are the results:
Raptors Vs. Over-Under Win Totals Since 2010-11
Currently, the Raptors’ 2023-24 forecasted win total for wagering purposes with Ontario sports betting apps sits at 36.5.
That might make Toronto fans a little uneasy. If the Raptors win 36 or 37 games this season, it’s unlikely they would even qualify for the league’s playoff play-in round. Last season, the Raptors went 41-41 and barely squeaked into the play-in round, where they were immediately dispatched by Chicago.
But history has some good news. For the past decade or so, the oddsmakers have typically underestimated the Raptors’ chances.
Raptors Recent History Vs. Win Total Lines
Dating to 2010-11, the Raptors have hit their forecasted win total nine times (75%). In the five seasons with a forecasted win total below .500, which is the case this season, the Raptors have gone over that number four times (80%). That includes the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.
Last year at BetMGM Ontario Sportsbook, the Raptors’ win total was set in the preseason at 46.5 wins. In winning just 41 games they fell below the oddsmakers’ forecast and after that 82-game slate, their playoff hopes ended after a single play-in game.
In 2021-22, the oddsmakers set Toronto’s win mark at a pessimistic 35.5 victories. However, Toronto went 48-34, qualified for the postseason, but lost in the Eastern Conference first round.
The 2020-21 season was a rare major fail for the Raptors. With a win total at 42.5, the team struggled to a 27-45 finish. However, prior to that, Toronto bested its forecasted win total for eight straight seasons, minus the discounted 2019-20 season.
One of those seasons when Toronto bested the win total forecast was for the 2018-19 season when the predicted total was a challenging 55.5 wins. That season, the Raptors not only went over the number with a 58-24 record but also went on to capture the NBA championship.
For more Raptors coverage as well as information on the newest Ontario sportsbooks, keep coming back to OntarioBets.com.