Golden Globe Nominations: Hypothetical Odds on Canadian Nominees

Golden Globe Nominations: Hypothetical Odds on Canadian Nominees
By Jeff Parker
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

The entertainment industry celebrates the 80th anniversary of the Golden Globe Awards on Jan. 10, 2023 in Beverly Hills, California. Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Globes are given annually to celebrate achievements in film and television. Included among the illustrious nominees are four Canadians — three from Ontario, along with Vancouver’s Seth Rogen. 

Over the years, Canadians have fared well at the Golden Globes. Past winners from the great white north include Jim Carrey, Sandra Oh and Ryan Gosling. Of course, there’s also Schitt’s Creek, the beloved Canadian sitcom that took home two wins from five nominations in 2021.

But can you guess the Canadian with the most Golden Globes wins? That would be Michael J. Fox. With four to his name, he has as many Globes as Al Pacino and Kate Winslet. 

So which Canadian has the best chance of joining the ranks of Marty McFly this year? And, most important, can we bet on it?

Sadly, Ontario sportsbooks aren’t offering odds on the 80th Golden Globes Awards.

But as a heat check on our four nominated Canadians, I’ve set hypothetical odds for each to win their respective categories.

See odds and further analysis below, and make sure to check with for reviews and information regarding Ontario sports betting apps for events that do have odds.

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Hypothetical Betting Odds for Canadian Golden Globes Nominees

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
James Cameron (Best Director) 3-1 25%
Sarah Polley (Best Screenplay – Motion Picture) 4-1 20%
Martin Short (Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy) 6-1 14.3%
Seth Rogen (Best Supporting Actor – TV Movie/Limited) 9-1 10%

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James Cameron (Best Director): 3-1

The bad news for James Cameron is that he’s up against the man with the most Golden Globe nominations of all time — Steven Spielberg (14). The good news is Cameron and Spielberg are tied for wins with two apiece. What’s more, they’ve been nominated against each other once before, at the 55th Golden Globes, where Cameron won Best Director for Titanic.

Now Cameron is back with the long awaited sequel to Avatar, which took home three Golden Globes (including Best Director) back in 2010. If early reactions are to be trusted, Avatar: The Way of Water is every bit the technical achievement of its predecessor. Has the pride of Kapuskasing, Ontario, truly done it again? If so, he might have a shot at beating out Spielberg’s nostalgic ode to movie-making, The Fabelmans.

Sarah Polley (Best Screenplay – Motion Picture): 4-1

Much was said on nomination day regarding a perceived snub of Sarah Polley as a Best Director candidate for her feature Women Talking. Will voters opt for a “make-up call” in the screenplay category in favor of the Toronto native when they cast their ballots?

With both The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once as competition, Polley’s script winning here would be an upset for sure, but I’m keeping these odds short-ish. This is a tight category and I could see the votes getting spread around with Polley, the well-respected industry vet, coming up on top.

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Martin Short (Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy): 6-1

For the second straight year Martin Short is nominated in this category alongside his Only Murders in the Building co-star Steve Martin. Neither won last year and, much like stubbornly high inflation, I suspect that trend to continue in 2023.

These odds suggest Short has a slightly less than 15% chance at winning. The Hamilton native will be splitting votes with Martin, so I think it’s a reasonable number.

Seth Rogen (Best Supporting Actor – TV Movie/Limited): 9-1

Nominated for his role in Hulu’s Pam & Tommy, a dramatization of the Pamela Anderson/Tommy Lee sex tape scandal, Rogen plays Rand Gauthier, a disgruntled construction worker who gets his hands on the most notorious VHS tape of the 1990s while working a job at the Anderson-Lee residence.

This is a slightly new category this year, as supporting performers in TV movies and limited run series had previously been lumped in with supporting roles in television series. However, looking back at recent winners from the earlier combined category, this is often a spot where actors appearing in critically acclaimed series and specials get rewarded. 

These odds imply a 10% chance of Rogen bringing hardware home north of the border. Considering the pretty “meh” reaction from critics for Pam & Tommy, I like these odds as a way to bait in wagers from bettors looking to back a known celeb at big odds.

If there are entertainment props offered at some point, Ontario gambling sites would have them and you could check with us for more details.

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Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with a Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.

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