Toronto Mayoral Race Odds, Who Will Be Toronto's Next Mayor?

By Mark Keast
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

Today we take a break from the normal oddsmaker headlines and Ontario sports betting coverage. Because Toronto has an election for mayor coming up, and never have we seen such a crowded field of candidates.

There are 102 candidates registered for the race, with the deadline to enter passing on May 12. The vote is June 26.

The three-term mayor, John Tory, resigned in February after admitting to an affair with a staffer. Tory had been the former leader of the Conservative Party in Ontario.

There something for everyone here, including the chance to bet on the race with a major Toronto online casinos operator.

Who Is on the Ballot

There are left-leaning candidates, more right leaning, people that are in the middle of the political spectrum and all points in between. There’s even a dog on the ballot (albeit under her owner’s name) and website has a complete list.

Toronto Elections provided a response regarding the fact that there are no party affiliations on the ballot:

The Municipal Elections Act, 1996 does not set out requirements with respect to political party affiliation for candidates. However, the Act prohibits Federal and Provincial political parties from making contributions to candidates.

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FanDuel Odds on Mayor’s Race

FanDuel Sportsbook Ontario has introduced a 2023 Toronto Mayoral By-Election market as campaigning starts to heat up.

Like many big cities across North America, Toronto has its share of major challenges. Crime, including in the subways and on the streetcars, homelessness and drug use in the parks, housing affordability, bad traffic, non-stop property development in the city’s core – the next mayor will have their work schedule jammed up.

No party affiliations are listed on the ballot for Toronto mayor. But the top candidates have easily traceable history.

Who Are Top Candidates For Toronto Mayor?

Olivia Chow, a past member of the left-leaning New Democratic Party (she served as a member of Parliament from 2006-14), is focusing on childcare, recreation, transportation services and affordability.

She is atop the FanDuel odds board and leads in the polls. Chow also ran in the 2014 election for mayor and lost to Tory. Ontario’s current premier, Doug Ford, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, also ran in that race – and finished second.

Some other top contenders on the official Toronto mayor candidates list at are:

Councillor Josh Matlow, who in the past ran as an Ontario Liberal Party candidate in 2002, and who wants to freeze the police budget;

Brad Bradford, focusing on subway safety after months of publicized attacks (it’s tougher to peg Bradford on the political spectrum, but he was endorsed by Tory when he won his councillor seat);

Ana Bailao, neither progressive-leaning or a conservative (describes herself as a “centrist”), and a former deputy mayor to Tory;

Former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders, a candidate for the Ontario Progressive Conservative party in the 2022 provincial election.

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Odds To Be Toronto Mayor

Olivia Chow -500
Mark Saunders +800
Ana Bailao +1400
Mitzie Hunter +1600
Brad Bradford +2000
Josh Matlow +2000
Chloe Brown +2300
Celina Caesar-Chavannes +2700
Giorgio Mammoliti +2700
Anthony Furey +3300
Blake Acton +4000
Frank D’Angelo +4000
Mark LeLiever +4000
Kevin Clarke +5000

Latest Updates in Toronto Mayoral Election

Chow has a growing lead in the polls and the other candidates are now going directly at her. In a Toronto Star poll released this week, Chow is speeding ahead, scoring 34.2%. Matlow has taken the biggest dip, now at 10.8%, after launching his campaign in April neck and neck with Chow. Bailao is second in the Star poll, at 13%.

Saunders is pushing the city to stop its efforts to decriminalize drugs and has been critical of bike lanes; he has seen a big drop in the polls.

The Toronto Sun reported that Anthony Furey, a Conservative, is moving up in the polls. The Sun quotes a Mainstreet Research poll this week that had Furey in fifth, behind Chow, Bailao, Saunders and Matlow.

The betting odds on the race are up at FanDuel, one of the top Ontario sportsbook apps.

Updated FanDuel odds now have Chow at -500, followed by Saunders (+800).


Mark Keast

Mark Keast has recently covered the sports betting industry in Canada for The Parleh, and is a long-time sportswriter and editor, most notably with the Toronto Sun.