Will Vlad Guerrero Jr. Have A Shot At 3,000 Hits?

Will Vlad Guerrero Jr. Have A Shot At 3,000 Hits?
By Christopher Boan
Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

A total of just 33 Major League Baseball players have ever eclipsed the hallowed 3,000-hit plateau, with Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers becoming the latest to do so in 2022.  

It’s worth asking whether Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may become the next MLB player to do just that at some point in the future.  

If he does, Guerrero would accomplish something that his Hall of Fame father (Vlad Guerrero Sr.) failed to do, as the elder Guerrero finished his sensational career with 2,590 hits across 16 seasons with the Montreal Expos, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, and Baltimore Orioles.

The 23-year-old junior member of the Guerrero family has already smacked 547 hits and 104 home runs across 504 MLB games with the Blue Jays, averaging 163 hits per 162-game season.

OntarioBets.com used ZIPs Projection on FanGraphs.com and past trends of 3,000 hit players at each age to determine the possibility of Guerrero Jr. becoming the 34th player to accomplish the feat.  

Here’s what we found for the Blue Jays budding supernova of a corner infielder. While his odds wouldn't be terribly favorable at Ontario sportsbooks, his youth and talent give him a fighting chance.

Odds of Joining The 3,000 Hit Club

Player Current Age Current # of Hits Percentage Chance Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23 54714%+615


 
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What Vlad Jr. Needs to Do to Reach 3,000 Hits

Guerrero is currently 2,453 hits shy of the 3K mark, meaning he’d need to average 200 hits per season over the next 12.265 MLB seasons to reach the mark.  

Thus far, the baby Guerrero has never collected more than 188 hits in a season, a feat he accomplished in 2021.  

If you take out the COVID-shortened 2020 season, in which Guerrero collected 58 hits in 60 games, the Montreal-born star has averaged 163 hits per season.  

Using that 163 hits-a-season metric, Guerrero would have to play at least 18.4 seasons to reach the 3,000 hit mark for his career — which isn’t impossible to envision given the home run specialist’s young age (23) and ability to collect hits by the boatload. But 19 seasons at that high-level of play is far from a guarantee.

For comparison, Guerrero’s father had fewer hits (305) through the end of his age-23 season than the junior member of the family, though he did have a 200-hit season under his belt.

Guerrero’s father didn’t win his lone MVP award until his age-29 season, meaning Blue Jays fans likely have several years to watch “Vladito” before he matches Vlad Sr.’s prime, though he's sure to be an MVP favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook Ontario next season.

Still, given the likelihood that the Blue Jays franchise hitter will suffer injuries and other hiccups in the future, it’s nowhere near a guarantee that Guerrero will ever reach the milestone. 

That’s why OntarioBets.com lists Guerrero at +615 to reach the mark during his already-storied MLB career, ranking second on our list behind San Diego's Juan Soto (+425) and ahead of MLB mainstays like Bryce Harper (+4900) and Rafael Devers (+9900).  

In the meantime, Blue Jays fans can take solace in the fact that they'll likely see decent odds to win the AL East next season on Ontario sports betting apps.

 
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Contributors

Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan is a writer at OntarioBets.com. He's covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.