Stanley Cup Or Bust: Which Canadian Team Will End Drought?

Stanley Cup Or Bust: Which Canadian Team Will End Drought?
By Mark Keast
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

As we’ve mentioned a few times lately, this NHL offseason feels like no other, at least in recent memory.

Typically, everything shuts down after that first day of free agency, July 1, and everyone heads to the cottage or the golf course. Business quiets down until September, even for Ontario sports betting.

Not this offseason. As far as Canadian NHL teams are concerned, there has been no shortage of talk show and social media banter, especially after the Maple Leafs placed goaltender Matt Murray on long-term injured reserve this week.

 
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Senators Sign Major Name

And Thursday, the Senators announced they had inked free agent scorer Vladmir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5 million deal. One-year contracts – because the league salary cap is expected to see a big jump for the 2024-25 season and beyond – have been a big storyline this summer. In Toronto, the Leafs signed free agent forwards Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi to one-year contracts.

Meanwhile, it has been 30 years since a Canadian team won a Stanley Cup. After a drought that long, OntarioBets.com – your source for reviews of Ontario online casinos – asked the question: Which team will break Canada’s Cup curse?

About Our Calculations

So, using a mixture of recent team success, future odds, prospect pool rankings and contract status for players, we created hypothetical odds for which Canadian NHL franchise will win a Stanley Cup next – not necessarily in the 2023-24 season, but just the next Canadian team to capture the big trophy.

According to the data: The Edmonton Oilers have the best percentage chance (25.0%) with the odds at +300. Following the Oilers are the Leafs. We give them a 22.2% chance to be the next team north of the border to win it all in the NHL, or +350 odds.

Here is a complete rundown, with odds you won’t find at Ontario betting apps, only here at OntarioBets.

Odds On Next Canadian Stanley Cup Winner

TeamPercentage Chance Odds
Edmonton Oilers 25% +300
Toronto Maple Leafs 22.2% +350
Ottawa Senators 13.5% +650
Montreal Canadiens 11.1% +800
Calgary Flames 9.1% +1000
Winnipeg Jets 9.1% +1000
Vancouver Canucks 4.0% +2400

Who Comes After Top Two

The Senators made a move with the Tarasenko signing and they improved a bit in our projections to 13.5%, or +650 odds. Somewhat surprisingly, the Montreal Canadiens came in just after the Senators at 11.1% (+800), followed by the Calgary Flames (9.1%, +1000), Winnipeg Jets (9.1%, +1000), then the Vancouver Canucks (4.0%, +2400).

As a comparable, NHL odds at BetMGM Ontario Sportsbook have the Leafs at +900 to win the Stanley Cup in the 2023-24 season, followed by the Oilers at +950, Flames at +3000, Senators at +4000, Canucks +6000, Jets at +6600 and Canadiens at +15000.

And according to Hockey Prospecting’s NHL Team Prospect Pool Strength Rankings: Montreal was second overall, Winnipeg was No. 18, the Leafs No. 20, Senators No. 21, Flames No. 24, Oilers No. 28 and Canucks No. 30.

 
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Salary Cap Concerns For Leafs

With the Oilers and Leafs, the franchises we deem most likely to end the nation’s drought, salary cap space is the storyline. Edmonton has it. Toronto does not.

Those two teams both have +1150 odds to win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup at NorthStar Bets Ontario Sportsbook.

According to CapFriendly, the Oilers have $5.6 million in room as of today. They still have to sign F Ryan McLeod and D Evan Bouchard, both RFAs, though. McLeod (11 goals, 23 points in 57 games last season) made $798,000 last season. He has an arbitration hearing Aug. 4. Bouchard, who doesn’t have arbitration rights, made just over $832k last season, according to Spotrac.

Despite the Murray move, the Leafs are still about $2 million over the cap. 

Plus with the Leafs, there are lots of questions about the quality of their blueline. They also must figure out what to do with William Nylander, who heads into the last year of a contract that pays the 40-goal, 87-point wing $6.9 million. He has reportedly asked for at least $10 million on a new deal. Nobody sees that happening.

For the latest NHL developments plus breakdowns of the newest sportsbooks in Ontario, stay with OntarioBets.

 
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Author

Mark Keast has recently covered the sports betting industry in Canada for The Parleh, and is a long-time sportswriter and editor, most notably with the Toronto Sun.

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