After a second-round loss to the Florida Panthers last month, the Toronto Maple Leafs are already facing one of their biggest questions for this offseason: Can they keep forward Mitch Marner?
As part of our Ontario sports betting coverage, OntarioBets.com developed exclusive odds weighing where Marner might sign for next season and beyond.
Editor’s note: This story was updated on June 25, 2025.
Team | Odds | Percent Chance |
Vegas Golden Knights | +450 | 18.2% |
Los Angeles Kings | +550 | 15.4% |
Carolina Hurricanes | +550 | 15.4% |
Toronto Maple Leafs | +800 | 11.1% |
Anaheim Ducks | +1100 | 8.3% |
Utah Mammoth | +1100 | 8.3% |
Dallas Stars | +1250 | 7.4% |
Chicago Blackhawks | +1250 | 7.4% |
The Field | +1000 | 9.1% |
These odds were developed exclusively for OntarioBets.com, where our Ontario sportsbook apps reviews will keep you in the loop when you sign up with an operator.
Toronto selected Marner fourth overall in the 2015 NHL Draft and he has played his entire nine-year career with the Maple Leafs. He has tallied 221 goals and 741 points and has been an All-Star selection three times. The right wing has seven 20-goal seasons including 27 goals, good for fifth on the team, this season.
But Marner is an especially strong playmaker as evidenced by his 75 assists during the 2024-25 regular season. That helped him top the Leafs in points with 102, No. 5 in the NHL.
Ontario fans are eagerly awaiting the next season after the Panthers again captured the Stanley Cup. See our Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup page to check out how various operators price their odds for next season.
The Leafs have major salary cap issues to address in the offseason. The question regarding Marner’s status must be at the forefront of any offseason plans in Toronto. The forward has had a salary cap hit of $10.903 million USD each of the past six seasons. His contract is up this summer and, at age 28, he can become an unrestricted free agent.
The NHL salary cap figure for the 2025-26 season is projected to be $95.5 million. According to data at the Spotrac website, the Leafs already have $37.2 million earmarked for eight forwards next season – and that list includes neither Marner nor John Tavares, who also can be a UFA in the offseason.
In our updated odds, we have the Vegas Golden Knights still as the slight favorite to land Marner from the outside, with an 18.2% chance. That would translate to +450 odds for NHL betting if it were offered as a prop wager. Up next are the L.A. Kings at +550 odds (a 15.4% implied probability), tied with the Carolina Hurricanes (also +550).
The Leafs are at +800 to retain Marner on our board. They have about $21 million before they hit their cap ceiling, but again that’s before either Tavares or Marner – or any other current Leafs free agents – are signed. It’s hard to envision that Toronto can keep both “Core Four” forwards and still make any other significant moves in this offseason.
USA Today photo by John E. Sokolowski
Mitch Marner is expected to become an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of his current contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Unless he re-signs before then, he'll be free to explore offers from all NHL teams during the 2025 offseason.
Current odds favor the Vegas Golden Knights (+450) followed by teams like the Carolina Hurricanes and Los Angeles Kings. Each franchise offers unique opportunities in terms of roster fit, playoff potential, and cap space.
There’s a strong chance, but not a guarantee. The Leafs face cap constraints and roster needs that could complicate negotiations. If no extension is reached, Marner is likely to test the open market for the first time in his career.
Author
Jim Tomlin is an editor and writer specializing in sports, gambling and the intersection of those industries. He has 30+ years of journalism experience and his work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition.
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