Editor’s note: This story was updated on June 11, 2025
After a second-round loss to the Florida Panthers last month, the Toronto Maple Leafs are already facing one of their biggest questions for this offseason: Can they keep forward Mitch Marner?
As part of our Ontario sports betting coverage, OntarioBets.com developed exclusive odds weighing where Marner might sign for next season and beyond.
Team | Odds | Percent Chance |
Vegas Golden Knights | +450 | 18.2% |
Anaheim Ducks | +475 | 17.4% |
Carolina Hurricanes | +800 | 11.1% |
Toronto Maple Leafs | +800 | 11.1% |
Los Angeles Kings | +1000 | 9.1% |
Chicago Blackhawks | +1100 | 8.3% |
Utah Mammoth | +1250 | 7.4% |
Florida Panthers | +1250 | 7.4% |
The Field | +900 | 10.0% |
These odds were developed exclusively for OntarioBets.com, where our Ontario sportsbook apps reviews will keep you in the loop when you sign up with an operator.
Toronto selected Marner fourth overall in the 2015 NHL Draft and he has played his entire nine-year career with the Maple Leafs. He has tallied 221 goals and 741 points and has been an All-Star selection three times. The right wing has seven 20-goal seasons including 27 goals, good for fifth on the team, this season.
But Marner is an especially strong playmaker as evidenced by his 75 assists during the 2024-25 regular season. That helped him top the Leafs in points with 102, No. 5 in the NHL.
Ontario fans are awaiting the next season even as this year’s Stanley Cup final is happening. See our Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup page to check out how various operators price their odds for next season.
The Leafs have major salary cap issues to address in the offseason. The question regarding Marner’s status must be at the forefront of any offseason plans in Toronto. The forward has had a salary cap hit of $10.903 million USD each of the past six seasons. His contract is up this summer and, at age 28, he can become an unrestricted free agent.
The NHL salary cap figure for the 2025-26 season is projected to be $95.5 million. According to data at the Spotrac website, the Leafs already have $37.2 million earmarked for eight forwards next season – and that list includes neither Marner nor John Tavares, who also can be a UFA in the offseason.
In our updated odds, we have the Vegas Golden Knights as the slight favorite to land Marner from the outside, with an 18.2% chance. That would translate to +450 odds for NHL betting if it were offered as a prop wager. Up next are the Anaheim Ducks at +475 odds (a 17.4% implied probability), who have about $35 million in cap space for next season, according to Spotrac.
The Leafs are at +800 to retain Marner on our board, tied with the Carolina Hurricanes for third. Toronto has about $21 million before they hit their cap ceiling, but again that’s before either Tavares or Marner – or any other current Leafs free agents – are signed. It’s hard to envision that Toronto can keep both “Core Four” forwards and still make any other significant moves in this offseason.
Current Stanley Cup odds at Caesars Sportsbook Ontario have the Leafs at +2600 odds for next season, well behind the two teams competing in this year’s final, the Florida Panthers (+700) and Edmonton Oilers (+800). The Canes are also +800 on the operator’s board to be the 2025-26 champions.
USA Today photo by John E. Sokolowski
Author
Jim Tomlin is an editor and writer specializing in sports, gambling and the intersection of those industries. He has 30+ years of journalism experience and his work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition.
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